JERUSALEM / ISLAMABAD, April 17, 2026 –As the international community watches the fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, a new strategic forecast suggests that Israel’s security focus may soon shift away from Iran toward two other regional giants: Turkey and Pakistan.
In a detailed assessment published by the Israeli daily Maariv, defense analyst Boaz Golani argues that the recent war has "wiped out" Iran's military capabilities and brought its economy to the brink of collapse.
The "Sunni Competition"
Golani identifies Turkey and Pakistan as the primary contenders for this role due to their massive populations, formidable standing armies, and solid Sunni majorities.
The Turkey Factor: Tensions have escalated recently as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traded sharp accusations over regional conflicts.
Golani warns that a new rivalry is likely to center on competing interests in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean. The Pakistan Factor: Despite Islamabad's role as a mediator in current peace talks, rhetoric remains hostile.
Just last week, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif drew a stern rebuke from Jerusalem after calling Israel a "curse for humanity" in a widely circulated social media post.
A New Defensive Reality
The analyst warns that Israel must prepare for a scenario where one of these nations confronts it directly once the current conflict with Iran fully subsides.
While regional trade continues—evidenced by Greek "shadow ships" carrying oil through Turkish ports to Israel—the underlying diplomatic "shifting sands" suggest a much colder future for Middle Eastern relations.
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https://thereporter24.com/news/turkey-or-pakistan-may-emerge-as-israel-s-next-regional-rival-says-analyst
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