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Global oil markets have been shaken after Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, the energy minister of Qatar, warned that escalating fighting in the Middle East could soon disrupt oil and gas production across the Persian Gulf, raising concerns about a potential global economic shock.
Oil prices surged in response to the warning, with Brent crude climbing 6.7 percent on Friday to trade above $91 per barrel. Kaabi said that if the conflict involving Iran continues in the coming weeks, prices could soar to as high as $150 per barrel, a level that could severely strain global economies.
Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Kaabi cautioned that the war risks destabilising the international energy system. He warned that extended hostilities could drive up energy prices worldwide, create shortages of key industrial supplies and ultimately slow economic growth in multiple regions.
Energy Hub Under Threat
The Middle East remains one of the most important centres for global oil and gas production. Any major disruption in the region can quickly affect international markets by pushing up the cost of transport, heating and manufactured goods.
The warning from Qatar came shortly after QatarEnergy confirmed that it had suspended production of Liquefied Natural Gas following military attacks on its facilities. The company also declared force majeure, a legal measure that allows suppliers to temporarily halt contractual deliveries due to extraordinary events.
Kaabi indicated that other producers in the Gulf could soon face similar disruptions if the conflict continues. According to him, restoring full production could take weeks or even months even if fighting stops immediately.
Shipping Route Crisis
The situation has also raised alarms about the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime passage linking Gulf energy producers to global markets. Roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply normally moves through this waterway every day.
Since fighting intensified between Iran and a United States–Israel coalition, shipping activity through the strait has slowed significantly, creating uncertainty for international energy supplies.
Major oil-importing countries including China, India and Japan could face serious challenges if the route becomes fully blocked.
Although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates operate pipelines that bypass the strait, analysts say these alternatives cannot fully replace the massive volumes normally transported through the waterway.
Risk of a Broader Economic Crisis
Energy experts warn that the conflict could evolve into a major global crisis if it drags on. Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said the world is approaching a critical moment in determining whether the disruption will remain temporary or escalate into a much larger energy shock.
According to Leon, if the conflict continues for more than two weeks, the likelihood of major disruptions to the global energy system will increase significantly.
If Gulf exporters are unable to ship their oil abroad, they would initially rely on storage facilities. However, once storage capacity fills up — which analysts estimate could happen within days or several weeks depending on the country — producers may have no option but to reduce or halt production.
Inflation Pressures Could Return
Economists warn that sustained high oil prices could push inflation higher again in major economies such as the United States and the United Kingdom, where price growth had recently been slowing.
Rising fuel costs are already affecting consumers, with petrol and diesel prices increasing in some markets. Energy bills for households could also climb later in the year if global prices remain elevated.
Investment strategist Lindsay James of Quilter described a complete shutdown of Gulf oil and gas production as an “extreme scenario,” but warned that the risk grows the longer the conflict continues.
Analysts say the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the crisis remains contained or evolves into a prolonged global energy and economic disruption.
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